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It’s 1.17am. I’m sending a 21Mb file to a printing service for reproduction for a client workshop. It says it’ll take another 19 minutes to upload.

If anyone ever asks you “what on earth will people do with all that bandwidth?”, the answer is “go to bed earlier”.

Andy asks “what’s next?”, and suggests video as the big growth area.

My compass suggests the following developments.

1. The macro picture: growth switches from Internet services to location services to ‘situation’ services. This is stuff like QR codes, and being able to interact with the environment right around you. Why can’t you get the commentary in the museum by entering the exhibit number into your cellphone?

2. We see an ever-stronger shift to 2-sided business models. (Ad-funded is one example, but expect to see that deepen to a wider range of marketing services, and a broader range of business processes.)

3. Getting specific, I think video will grow fast, but only in certain segments, principally nomad workers and in-office.

4. Integration of Web and Telco is probably the Next Big Thing. The phone experience (address book, call logs, presence, voicemail, etc.) comes with you into the web sites you visit, and vice versa. Why can’t someone leave me a ‘Skype’ voicemail, but I collect it on my T-Mobile handset’s voicemail system? Bags of cash in getting this to work together, expect to see more 2-sided markets (check out voicemail example down the bottom).

5. The ‘user crisis’ is probably in-building coverage in the US, and presence and availability data both there and everywhere else. Something needs to let me know if you’re in a call before I press the green button, please. Or driving. Or in an unexpected time zone. We’re going to loosen up a bit when it comes to privacy.

6. All the ingredients are coming together (handsets, networks, UIs, services) for telco telephony to get some stiff competition over the next few years. Likely outcome: co-opetition, a-la Skypephone from 3/Qualcomm/Skype.

In #1 we're just starting to see some LBS/location but still nto there yet. In that respect I feel 'situation' is 2+ yrs away. No has figured out how 2 make money yet from LBS so until the business proposition gets solidified it will be hard to move further on (bit like ALL the SN'ing systems there)

#2 more business scenarios would be good. Seems a bit vague

#4 good point. U can c the early potential with firms like iotum but still a long way 2 go

#6 I'll be surprised in we get the telco's to REALLY band together in next 3 yrs

Lal

…don’t we automatically keep, transcribe and index our half of all the calls we make? After all, it’s our speech. No need to record what the other person said. Just don’t use a speakerphone!

Why do we insist on ‘all or nothing’?

Where’s the Gmail for phone calls? Something that lets me search my life history of chatter.

PS - Skype chat search is rubbish.

I think the Text to Speech stuff coming out from SpinVox, PhoneTag, and Dial2do will bring this stuff to you very soon. Just look at www.twitterfone.com , search for it on http://quotably.com/home, etc. etc. Just back up your TTS on Gdrive.... and there you go, searchable phone records....

Oh yeah, and route all your mail through gmail, and all your calls through your grand central number, eh, I think they are calling it lifecashing?

Martin,

Now that is 'something' that would be of value.
Can see difficulties but heh! whats a challenge 2 some geekie guys.

Lal

You can here me talk at a panel at eComm here answering What Will Drive Wireless Innovation?.

For those without an hour to spare, I’m also on the BBC News site here today.

UPDATE: My eComm keynote on re-thinking the phone company is here. But you’ve got work to do, no time to waste watching videos on the web, no? ;)

In case anyone doubts the UK and US are two nations divided by a common language, here’s what my mum phoned me to ask today when booking online a hotel in Las Vegas.

“Marts, between the boxes for first name and last name there’s a little box with ‘M’ and ‘I’ above. What does that mean?”

“Middle initial, mum.”

“And then at the end, there’s a box with ‘Sr’ and ‘Jr’. As we’re over 62, shouldn’t we put ‘Senior’ in case there’s a discount?”

Pause.

“No, mum.”

Oh, and the telco angle? Shouldn’t there be an API for the web site to collect this stuff from their ISP, with due permission etc.?

Anyhow, I wonder how many US websites find thousands of people come from the ‘state or region’ of Londonshire?

easy enough mate - stay in bloody England - heh, heh!

There is an API already created - hcards and other microformats.

The google toolbar also used to have a rudimentary equivalent - it would attempt to fill in forms based on the data you gave it including credit card numbers IIRC. (I don't know if google toolbar still does this).

This is an area crying out for a solution, but I'm not sure that the telco is the best provider. the website is not asking for autheticated data - you are just proposing that it provide a service such as the above. It doesn't matter to the website who is registered to the IP address - I could be booking a trip for someone else, or on someone else's connection.

I can see hosted hcard services being an added feature to telcos, but even then they will simply be the default provider among many. Perhaps not a bad position to be in, but by no means game-changing.

Microsoft CardSpace or an Open source Identity protocol like OpenID will eventually eliminate the need for web forms...

You'll just drop and drag your virtual ID card onto the web page login to or form to fill, indicate which data you want to share with the provider (ie hotel) and click submit... you'll never enter a form again....

--JB

Any solution that requires my mother to do more than keep breathing is a non-starter, I'm afraid.