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Mr Blog
Mr Blog. Very technical, or silly, sometimes absurd.

  • Is the dip in Google?s stock warranted?
    Google’s recent earnings miss translated into a loss of nearly 5% in market cap. Is it simply a case of unreasonable expectations or is there more to it? Analyst, Shudeep Chandrasekhar recently took a look. At first glance, Alphabet seems to have delivered a solid quarter but look a little deeper and you?ll find a mix of good and bad. Mr. Chandrasekhar points to the following factors, all related to the general shift toward mobile: Increased traffic acquisition costs: As mobile usage grows stronger each year it will continue to impact Alphabet’s margins in greater measure. Approaching a saturation point on ad revenue growth: Alphabet is essentially paying more to advertise on mobile networks, but its earnings per click have plateaued out. The revenue per click from smartphones is less than half those of desktop. As mobile usage keeps increasing, ads are going to get cheaper but more effective. This is great for a company that?s advertising but not as much for the network itself. Google isn’t the only player in town for mobile: In the desktop web search space Google has been the dominant force for years; the same cannot be said for mobile, where Facebook already has a very strong mobile ad network and […]

  • Will the death of phone subsidies change consumer behavior in the US?
    The old “get a free phone every two years” cycle is over in the US. With the the death of those subsidies, people will actually have to start paying for their smartphones now, to the tune of $500 or more. The big question is will this change users’ behavior significantly. The downside for people is that they are going to suffer sticker shock when they go phone shopping. People are used to thinking that these devices cost $200 or less, but that?s the ?subsidized? price. The actual price for an iPhone 6 is $649.99, or a Samsung Galaxy 6 S is $576. – Ed Hardy, Man’s Life One possibility is the upgrade cycles get longer, more like PC or tablet upgrade cycles. When people have to pay for a device, they tend to keep it longer. Many analysts attribute longer replacement cycles for tablets to the fact that most tablets are not on a carrier contract. However, now the same thing applies to mobile phones. The typical iPad owner upgrades to a newer model closer to every three years than every two. Will we see the same thing happen with mobile phones? Another possibility is a shift toward cheaper, bargain phones […]

  • Here?s what?s holding back the Internet of things
    The “internet of things” (IOT) has become a hot topic in the tech. press. While the term is relatively new, connecting devices to networks is certainly nothing new. IOT has become the catch-all name to describe smart-home sensors, embedded devices, and other smart-devices with internet connectivity, characterized by devices like the Nest thermostat but IOT includes everything from coffee makers to washing machines, lamps, wearable devices and about anything else you can think of. IOT has been envisioned for a long time. For example, consider the following from a 1999 paper related to Sun’s Jini project of the time: The current trends in the hardware world point to a future in which more and more devices that we use every day will be enhanced with embedded processors and interconnected via networks. That was 15 years ago… and we’re still waiting. If one looks through the various articles on the subject over the years, right up to today, we find very similar language, suggesting a glorious “internet of things” world right around the corner. Instead, we have a lot of fits and starts, balkanized islands, and no clear path to a viable ecosystem. A recent GigaOm article on the subject, rather than highlighting a bright future, to me summarizes the biggest problem: “Where?s […]

  • I hope Apple continues to offer a four-inch iPhone (for men?)
    I’m an analyst and researcher first, but I’m also a plain old end-user too. When I speak of Apple vs. Google or iOS vs. Android, I’m usually speaking in the abstract, with no relation to my own personal preference. However, in this case, it’s very personal. I want essentially an iPhone 6 “mini”. What I want is an iPhone with iPhone 6 features, like a faster processor, Apple Pay, new camera, and the additional sensors, but in the form-factor of essentially the iPod Touch 5th gen. small, thin, light. For me personally, the smaller, lighter, device is way better. I actually like my old iPhone 5, but would like it even more with a faster processor and Apple Pay, a new iPhone “mini” to essentially replace the iPhone 5S line. For men in particular, size matters. A lot of us aren’t ready to start lugging around a “murse”. We only have so much room in our pockets so we have to be very selective about what makes the cut. In my case, often it’s pants pocket or it stays home. Of course, unlike a lot of other analysts and tech. bloggers, I realize I’m not Apple’s primary customer. I don’t […]

  • Google adsense decline a blip or trend?
    For the first three quarters of 2013 growth of revenue from partner sites through the Google AdSense program completely stagnated and revenues actually shrunk. Things looked a little better for the last quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, but industry pundits and analysts see it as a disturbing downward trend.   The Incredible Shrinking Inventory Of PC Screens As we enter the Post-PC era, we are seeing PC screens getting replaced by smartphones and tablets. At the end of 2012, I predicted that the inventory of PC screens available for Google ads would be declining over the next ten years, using the rate of decline of dial-up users as a model. It’s hard to predict the rate of decline and equally difficult to obtain hard data on the number of PC screens in use, but according to IDC, in 2013 PC shipments dropped by 9.8 percent, their steepest-ever decline. Google doesn’t hold the same dominant monopoly position on mobile, facing legitimate competition. Furthermore, mobile ads do not generate the same kind of revenue per action: Google has reported declining value from clicks on its ads. And the shift to mobile ads is accelerating the decline, because it produces a fraction of the revenue of desktop ads. —  Tom […]

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